(AsiaGameHub) – By: Christian Pierce
Everyone is backing Mexico to beat South Korea this Thursday. Historical results and FIFA rankings give that narrative a lot of weight. Casual bettors are already piling into Mexico -0.5 to cash out. Recent form of both sides tells a very different story.
Both teams locked in three points from their opening group games. Mexico beat South Africa 2-0, but Cesar Montes got a red card at 90+2′. Julian Quinones scored in the 9th minute to set the game pace. Raul Jimenez added the second at 67′ to seal the win. South Korea fell behind to the Czech Republic, then fought back hard. Hwang In-beom equalized at 67′, Oh Hyoen-gyu scored the winner at 80′. Goalie Kim Seung-guy saved a late point blank attempt to lock three points. Mexico beat South Korea in their 1998 and 2018 World Cup meetings. South Korea ranks 10 spots below Mexico in official FIFA rankings. Current betting odds are as follows. Moneyline: South Korea +100, Draw +323, Mexico +235. Spread: South Korea +0.5 +116, Mexico -0.5 +100. Total goals: Over 2 -126, Under 2 +110. The game kicks off at 6 pm June 18 at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara. You can watch it on FOX, FOX One, or Fubo.
Mexico’s side tends to play rough when pressured. They already gave up one costly red card in the opening match. South Korea proved they have the grit to win from a disadvantage. Their defense has clear weaknesses that can be exploited. But Mexico is one silly foul away from playing down a man late. South Korea’s resilience cancels out Mexico’s historical edge. The most likely result here is a split of points. My official pick is Draw (+323).
Author bio: Christian Pierce, veteran sports betting analyst and markets commentator for leading global sports media.